the least worst of james windsor

because we all like avoiding what we really should be doing.

Thursday, May 22, 2008

Hilliary Clinton will win the Democratic Presidental Nomination

once again I haven't posted in a long time but here is my opinion on the current state of American politics.
Yes that's right I believe that Hillary will eventually beat out Barrack Obama for the nomination of presidential candidate this year. Sounds pretty fucking ridiculous doesn't it? The fact that Hillary needs 98% of the remaining undeclared super delegates to win the nomination, and Obama only needs 3% further underlines that point. So then why the hell would I still think that she is going to win? A poll on CNN has 95% of the population feeling that the nomination won't be decided until the day of the convention. Why is that a big deal?

Super delegates can change who they want to support until the very last moments of the convention. So why would 98% of the super delegates suddenly switch support from Obama to Hillary? That all depends on what kind of bullshit story the American public, and for that matter the general population of the world can swallow. In the recent days we have seen the Hillary campaign underline the fact that everyone's vote should count. This is important because two major swing states delegates; Florida and Michigan's votes and delegates have been disallowed. So why would two states knowingly go against their own party's rules and have their primaries ahead of time so that they would be disallowed?
The current line is they wanted to receive more attention, so that they would be more important. Well ultimately this statement isn't incorrect. They will become incredibly important as this contest dwindles down to its ultimate conclusion. Hillary will demand that the votes of these two states be counted. Currently there is talk of a mail-in vote, or just having the primaries held again. Hillary currently has a 17 point lead in Florida, and a 14 point lead in Michigan. These are two important swing states and if Hillary can "win" these states by a large enough margin, it will a great bull shit excuse to "convince" the super-delegates to give her the nomination.
Hillary and Barrack are both back campaigning in Florida, so this now seems inevitable. (Hillary is currently in Boca Raton, Obama talking to Cuban-Americans)
Hillary has been making ever so slightly gains over the last few primaries. There is a reason why this has been dragged out for so long. To make you so sick of it, so that you hate the process, don't want to pay attention to it, and ultimately could careless about the final outcome. This is the slow grind of manufacturing consent and apathy.
I hope to fucking god I am wrong about all this but I've noticed far too many subtle hints in the media lately. When Edwards endorsed Obama he spent the entire time talking about how wonderful Hilary is. In the NYTIMES they keep printing these strange dark pictures of Obama that only show a shadow of him that makes him come across as sinister and mysterious. The rhetoric that Hillary has been using as of late; “And so our party will have a tough choice to make,” she says. “Who’s ready to lead our party at the top of our ticket? Who is ready to defeat Senator McCain in the swing states and among swing voters?”

The current odds for Hillary to win are 6.5 to 1, Obama 1.2 to 1.
Hillary is doing a good job now of playing the sexist card, that she won't be bullied out of this contest. This will give her more then enough gas to take her all the way to the convention.

so that is my prediction. I hope I'm wrong, but if there is anything that history has taught me, it is to fight optimism and hope when predicting future events, they distort our ability to perceive reality and the situation that surrounds us. This sounds pessimistic as hell but I am going way out on a limb here. Optimism is cowardice and to make a bold prediction is pessimistic in its very nature.

so now, we wait and see.

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